This patent document relates to determining a timing and/or type of an intervention based at least in part on a likelihood of patient adherence to a medical prescription. In order to treat a disease or a medical condition, medical professionals often prescribe various medical treatments to patients. A medical treatment can include prescribing a medication that must be taken in prescribed doses by a patient at certain intervals over the course of a treatment period. Poor adherence to a prescription such as a drug prescription can lead to various adverse outcomes which can place added burden on the health care system in which the patient belongs. For example, a patient's poor adherence to a prescription can decrease the overall effectiveness of the prescribed treatment and can ultimately adversely affect the health of the patient. In some instances, poor adherence can result in the medical condition of a patient worsening and can even lead to more serious medical conditions that are more costly to treat than the original condition. Poor adherence can also increase the overall recovery time for a disease or medical condition, which in turn can add to the overall cost of treatment. Additionally, a medical professional may not be aware of a patient's poor adherence and may increase the patient's prescribed treatment such as increasing the strength of a prescribed medication as a result of the patient's poor progress. This can lead to over-treatment which can result in greater risks to the patient's safety. In a clinical trial setting, poor adherence to medical prescriptions by a clinical trial participant may adversely affect the results of the clinical trial.
Models have been developed to predict patient adherence. Some models have been used to predict patient adherence in all patients. Other models have been developed that are very specific (e.g. to patients with a particular disease) and not applicable to other uses.